Not every data shift is a signal. Classify before you react.

As shared by John A. Dues on Linkedin 2/24/25:

When a number moves, the instinct is to move with it.

A benchmark dips. Attendance softens. Suspension rates tick upward. The shift appears on a dashboard, and urgency begins to rise.

But before deciding what to do, leaders must decide what the change represents.

When data shifts, one of three conditions is present:

Routine Variation.
The system is stable. The result falls within the range it has historically produced. The number might be good or bad, but nothing meaningful has changed.

Stable but Unacceptable Performance (one type of routine variation).
The system behaves predictably, but outcomes remain below expectation. The issue is not the latest data point. The issue is system design.

Meaningful Signal.
The result breaks from historical patterns. Something in the system may have shifted.

Most instability in schools comes from confusing these categories.

When routine variation is treated as a crisis, leaders make things worse.
When true signals are ignored, problems compound.

Classification precedes intervention.